Evaluation of long-term hydrological droughts in Turkey's Eastern Black Sea Basin


Terzi T. B., Üçüncü O.

PHYSICS AND CHEMISTRY OF THE EARTH, cilt.139, 2025 (SCI-Expanded, Scopus) identifier identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 139
  • Basım Tarihi: 2025
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1016/j.pce.2025.103946
  • Dergi Adı: PHYSICS AND CHEMISTRY OF THE EARTH
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, Artic & Antarctic Regions, Chimica, Compendex, Geobase, INSPEC
  • Karadeniz Teknik Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

Drought is a complex and multifaceted natural hazard that poses significant risks to ecosystems, economies, and societies. With the intensification of climate change, the frequency and severity of drought events are expected to rise, amplifying their detrimental effects. This study addresses hydrological drought in the Eastern Black Sea Basin (EBSB) in Turkey, a region characterized by high precipitation but largely understudied in terms of drought vulnerability. The Standardized Streamflow Index (SSFI) is employed to assess the drought characteristics across six different hydrological stations in the basin between 1965 and 2011. The sensitivity of the SSFI to the selected probability distribution functions (PDF) was assessed, with Generalized Logistic distribution identified as the most suitable model for the EBSB. The results reveal not only basin-wide drought events but also significant spatial variability in drought severity, particularly during the droughts of 1969-1971, 1994, and 2001. This highlights the region's susceptibility to severe droughts, despite its overall wet climate. The findings underscore the necessity of implementing integrated drought monitoring systems and developing proactive water resource management strategies to mitigate future risks. This study offers new insights into hydrological drought in the EBSB, providing a foundation for future research on drought monitoring and adaptation strategies in similar climates.