Spatial mapping of earthquake hazard parameters in the Hindukush-Pamir Himalaya and adjacent regions: Implication for future seismic hazard

Yadav R. B. S., Tsapanos T. M., Koravos G. C., BAYRAK Y., DEVLIOTI K. D.

JOURNAL OF ASIAN EARTH SCIENCES, pp.115-124, 2013 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume:
  • Publication Date: 2013
  • Doi Number: 10.1016/j.jseaes.2013.03.007
  • Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus
  • Page Numbers: pp.115-124
  • Karadeniz Technical University Affiliated: Yes


The study deals spatial mapping of earthquake hazard parameters like annual and 100-years mode along with their 90% probability of not being exceeded (NBE) in the Hindukush-Pamir Himalaya and adjoining regions. For this purpose, we applied a straightforward and most robust method known as Gumbel's third asymptotic distribution of extreme values (GIII). A homogeneous and complete earthquake catalogue during the period 1900-2010 with magnitude M-w >= 4.0 is utilized to estimate these earthquake hazard parameters. An equal grid point mesh, of 1 degrees longitude X 1 degrees latitude, is chosen to produce detailed earthquake hazard maps. This performance allows analysis of the localized seismicity parameters and representation of their regional variations as contour maps. The estimated result of annual mode with 90% probability of NBE is expected to exceed the values of M-w 6.0 in the Sulaiman-Kirthar ranges of Pakistan and northwestern part of the Nepal and surroundings in the examined region. The 100-years mode with 90% probability of NBE is expected to exceed the value of M-w 8.0 in the Hindukush-Pamir Himalaya with Caucasus mountain belt, the Sulaiman-Kirthar ranges of Pakistan, northwestern part of the Nepal and surroundings, the Kangra-Himanchal Pradesh and Kashmir of India. The estimated high values of earthquake hazard parameters are mostly correlated with the main tectonic regimes of the examined region. The spatial variations of earthquake hazard parameters reveal that the examined region exhibits more complexity and has high crustal heterogeneity. The spatial maps provide a brief atlas of the earthquake hazard in the region. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.