Assessment of Earthquake Hazard Parameters with Bayesian Approach Method Around Karliova Triple Junction, Eastern Turkey

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TÜRKER T. , Bayrak Y.

3rd World Multidisciplinary Earth Sciences Symposium (WMESS), Prague, Çek Cumhuriyeti, 11 - 15 Eylül 2017, cilt.95 identifier identifier


In this study, the Bayesian Approach method is used to evaluate earthquake hazard parameters of maximum regional magnitude (Mmax), beta value, and seismic activity rate or intensity (lambda) and their uncertainties for next 5, 10, 25, 50, 100 years around Karliova Triple Junction (KTJ). A compiled earthquake catalog that is homogenous for Ms >= 3.0 was completed during the period from 1900 to 2017. We are divided into four different seismic source regions based on epicenter distribution, tectonic, seismicity, faults around KTJ. We two historical earthquakes (1866, Ms=7.2 for Region 3 (Between Bingol-Karliova-Mus-Bitlis (Bahcekoy Fault Zone-Uzunpinar Fault Zone-Karakocan Fault-Mus Fault Zones -Kavakbasi Fault)) and 1874, Ms=7.1 for Region 4 (Between Malatya-Elazig-Tunceli (Palu Basin-Puturge Basin-Erkenek Fault-Malatya Fault)) are included around KTJ. The computed Mmax values are between 7.71 and 8.17. The quantiles of functions of distributions of true and apparent magnitude on a given time interval [0, T] are evaluated. The quantiles of functions of distributions of apparent and true magnitudes for next time intervals of 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years are calculated for confidence limits of probability levels of 50, 70, and 90 % around KTJ. According to the computed earthquake hazard parameters, Erzincan Basin-Ovacik Fault-Pulumur Fault-Yedisu Basin region was the most seismic active regions of KTJ. Erzincan Basin-Ovacik Fault-Pulumur Fault-Yedisu Basin region is estimated the highest earthquake magnitude 7.16 with a 90 % probability level in the next 100 years which the most dangerous region compared to other regions. The results of this study can be used in earthquake hazard studies of the East Anatolian region.