Long-term earthquake prediction in the Marmara region based on the regional time- and magnitude-predictable model

Sayil N. L.

ACTA GEOPHYSICA, vol.61, no.2, pp.338-356, 2013 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 61 Issue: 2
  • Publication Date: 2013
  • Doi Number: 10.2478/s11600-012-0088-7
  • Journal Name: ACTA GEOPHYSICA
  • Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus
  • Page Numbers: pp.338-356
  • Keywords: recurrence time, regional time, and magnitude-predictable model, interevent time, Marmara region, MEDITERRANEAN REGION, AEGEAN AREA, SEISMICITY, ANATOLIA, SEQUENCE, VICINITY, BELT, KINEMATICS, TECTONICS, HIMALAYA
  • Karadeniz Technical University Affiliated: Yes


In order to estimate the recurrence intervals for large earthquakes that occurred in the Marmara region, this region, limited with the coordinates of 39A degrees-42A degrees N, 25A degrees-32A degrees E, has been separated into seven seismogenic sources on the basis of certain seismological criteria, and regional time- and magnitude-predictable model has been applied for these sources. Considering the interevent time between successive mainshocks, the following two predictive relations were computed: log T (t) = 0.26 M (min) + 0.06 M (p) -0.56 log M (0) + 13.79 and M (f) = 0.63 M (min) - 0.07 M (p) + 0.43 log M (0) - 7.56. Multiple correlation coefficient and standard deviation have been computed as 0.53 and 0.35 for the first relation and 0.66 and 0.39 for the second relation, respectively. On the basis of these relations and using the occurrence time and magnitude of the last mainshocks in each seismogenic source, the probabilities of occurrence P(Delta t) of the next mainshocks during the next five decades and the magnitude of the expected mainshocks were determined.