Modeling of coal consumption in Turkey: An application of trend analysis


Aydin G., Kaya S., Karakurt I.

24th International Mining Congress of Turkey, IMCET 2015, Antalya, Turkey, 14 - 17 April 2015, pp.83-87 identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Conference Paper / Full Text
  • City: Antalya
  • Country: Turkey
  • Page Numbers: pp.83-87
  • Keywords: Coal, absolute percentage error, root mean square error, means absolute error, ENERGY-CONSUMPTION, CO2 EMISSIONS, PROJECTION
  • Karadeniz Technical University Affiliated: Yes

Abstract

In the current modeling, trend analysis is used to model coal consumption (CC) and forecast the future coal demand in Turkey. The data is divided into two groups as the data for training the model (during the period 1970-2005) and the data for testing the model (during the period 2006-2013). The developed models are tested by the t-distribution, Fdistribution and residual analysis. Additionally, the performance of the derived models are assessed using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), root mean square error (RMSE) and means absolute error (MAE). The results show that the proposed models can be used for forecasting of future coal demand in Turkey.