Prediction of natural gas demand by considering implications of energy-related policies: The case of Türkiye

Es H. A., Baban P., Hamzaçebi C.

ENERGY SOURCES PART B-ECONOMICS PLANNING AND POLICY, vol.18, no.1, 2023 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 18 Issue: 1
  • Publication Date: 2023
  • Doi Number: 10.1080/15567249.2023.2274865
  • Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, Academic Search Premier, Aerospace Database, Applied Science & Technology Source, CAB Abstracts, Communication Abstracts, Compendex, Computer & Applied Sciences, Environment Index, Greenfile, INSPEC, Metadex, Pollution Abstracts, Public Affairs Index, Veterinary Science Database, Civil Engineering Abstracts
  • Keywords: Energy policies, forecasting, Grey Dynamic decision support system, Grey prediction models, Natural gas
  • Karadeniz Technical University Affiliated: Yes


The most important key to determining sustainable energy policies is reliable and accurate energy demand forecasting. Grey prediction, one of the demand forecasting methods, makes successful forecasts with limited data and without the need for any prior knowledge. In this study, GM (1,1) and Grey Verhulst from time series models and GM (1, N) model based on cause-effect relationship were used to forecast Turkiye's natural gas demand. Dynamic grey forecasting models have been developed in order to obtain robust and reliable predictions. All developed models were evaluated according to performance criteria, and the superior model was obtained to be GM (1,5). Within the scope of the study, it was determined that models based on cause-effect relationship should be preferred instead of time series models. For this, population, the amount of electricity generated from natural gas, industrial production index, and building area are determined as independent variables. Three different scenarios were created taking into account the specified independent variables, and natural gas demand until 2025 was obtained. According to the forecasting results, Turkiye's natural gas demand for 2025 will happen as an interval between 29.61 and 53.62 mtoe based on the low and high scenarios, respectively. According to the expected scenario, this demand would be realized around 40 mtoe for Turkiye in the year 2025. Finally, Grey Dynamic Decision Support System was designed and introduced to easily apply the dynamic grey models by end-users.