Forecasting of Turkey's coal consumption using grey prediction technique

Karakurt I., Aydin G., Kaya S., Hamzacebi C.

24th International Mining Congress of Turkey, IMCET 2015, Antalya, Türkiye, 14 - 17 Nisan 2015, ss.77-82 identifier identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Bildiri / Tam Metin Bildiri
  • Basıldığı Şehir: Antalya
  • Basıldığı Ülke: Türkiye
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.77-82
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: Grey prediction technique, mean absolute percentage error, mean absolute error
  • Karadeniz Teknik Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

ABSTRACT

Coal is by far the most plentiful energy resource in Turkey. Domestically produced coal accounts for more than half of the country's total energy production. Coal has been consumed primarily for power generation, steel manufacturing, and cement production. Due to its importance in country's energy balance, modeling and forecasting of coal consumption is an important issue for government, energy sector investors and other corporations in Turkey. In this study, therefore, coal consumption of Turkey was forecasted using a Grey modeling (1,1) technique. The data used in the study was composed of coal consumption in Turkey for the period of 1965-2013. Using these historical data, the coal consumption of Turkey was forecasted for the period of 2014-2025. Additionally, the performance of forecasting was measured using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and mean absolute error (MAE).