Long-Term Forest Landscape Transformation and Registered Forest Crimes in the Eastern Black Sea, Türkiye
LAND, cilt.15, sa.2, ss.1-32, 2026 (SSCI, Scopus)
- Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
- Cilt numarası: 15 Sayı: 2
- Basım Tarihi: 2026
- Doi Numarası: 10.3390/land15071261
- Dergi Adı: LAND
- Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Natural Science Collection (ProQuest), Scopus, Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Geobase, CAB Abstracts, Directory of Open Access Journals
- Sayfa Sayıları: ss.1-32
- Açık Arşiv Koleksiyonu: AVESİS Açık Erişim Koleksiyonu
- Karadeniz Teknik Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet
Özet
Long-term forest landscape change in mountainous rural areas reflects interactions among land-use pressure, forest structure and human activities. This study had two primary objectives: (i) to quantify 53 years of change in forest extent, stand structure and landscape configuration in the Kümbet Planning Unit in the Eastern Black Sea Region of Türkiye and (ii) to evaluate associations of annual registered forest crime counts with election-year status and broader-scale population and real per capita income indicators while treating the crime records as contextual indicators of recorded pressure rather than as causal measures of landscape change. Forest stand-type maps from 1971, 2013 and 2024 were analyzed using LULC transition matrices and landscape metrics. Annual registered forest crime records for 1981–2025 were examined in relation to election-year status, the provincial population and real per capita income using correlation analysis and negative binomial regression, with linearly interpolated annual forest area included as an exposure offset.
Total forest area declined from 6747.8 to 6298.1 ha, whereas agricultural land increased from 637.3 to 2177.7 ha. Degraded forest and open areas decreased, and 44.3% of the study area changed land-cover type. Landscape fragmentation increased between 1971 and 2013, followed by partial spatial consolidation between 2013 and 2024. Election-year status and real per capita income were not significantly associated with annual registered forest crime counts. Within the 1981–2025 study period, the provincial population showed a positive temporal association with registered forest crime counts. Each increase of 10,000 persons
corresponded to an approximately 7.5% increase in the expected registered forest crime rate, but this relationship should not be interpreted as a direct local demographic effect. Registered forest crime density did not differ significantly among management-related periods. The temporal correspondence between higher crime density and stronger fragmentation was descriptive and did not establish causality. These findings demonstrate that forest conservation and landscape-restoration planning should integrate forest extent, stand structure, land-cover transitions, landscape configuration and appropriately scaled administrative indicators of recorded forest-related pressure.