Prediction of flood discharge with Jaya algorithm for Trabzon Province


Günay A., Yüksek Ö., Anılan T.

4th International Civil Engineering & Architecture Conference, Trabzon, Türkiye, 17 - 19 Mayıs 2025, cilt.1, sa.1, ss.1061-1067, (Tam Metin Bildiri)

  • Yayın Türü: Bildiri / Tam Metin Bildiri
  • Cilt numarası: 1
  • Doi Numarası: 10.31462/icearc2025_ce_hwr_754
  • Basıldığı Şehir: Trabzon
  • Basıldığı Ülke: Türkiye
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.1061-1067
  • Karadeniz Teknik Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

Floods are the natural disasters that cause the highest life and property loss worldwide after earthquakes. Therefore, accurate prediction of flood discharges has a critical role in the design of hydraulic structures for economic and safe structure design. By employing developing technology, different algorithms are frequently used for modelling of flood flow prediction. In these modelling studies, a number of variables; including the areas, elevations, record lengths, latitude, and longitude of the stations are used as variable parameters. These studies are carried out for regions with a high probability of flooding. In this study, Trabzon Province of the Eastern Black Sea Basin (EBSB), one of the basins of Türkiye with a high probability of being exposed to flood disasters, was selected as the application basin. Various models were developed to estimate the flood discharges using the area and elevation data of 16 Stream Gauge Stations (SGS) located in the Trabzon province in the EBSB. The observation durations of SGS’s were between 9 to 42 years. Multiple linear regression, classical regression (CRA), and Jaya algorithms that optimize hyperbolic and exponential regression functions were used for maximum flood flow estimations. As a result of the study, the Jaya optimization algorithm to model the maximum flood discharges, with low error values, has been found very successful.