The Modeling of Coal-related CO2 Emissions and Projections into Future Planning

Aydin G.

ENERGY SOURCES PART A-RECOVERY UTILIZATION AND ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS, vol.36, no.2, pp.191-201, 2014 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier


In recent years, the attention has shifted to projections of energy and related greenhouse gas emissions as a result of increasing environmental concern and global warming. In the present contribution, coal-related CO2 emissions are modeled by trend analysis and projections are presented for future planning. For projections, trends in coal-related CO2 emissions during 1971-2010 are first identified on the basis of the regions and the countries that are responsible for the majority of the emissions. According to the trend observed, appropriate regression analysis is employed to catch a regression model with a high determination coefficient. Developed models are tested by the t-distribution, the F-distribution, and the residual analysis. Statistically significant trends are indicated for the world total, the regions including OECD Americas, OECD Asia Oceania, Africa, Asia, China, non-OECD Americas, and the countries, namely, United States, India, Japan, South Africa, Korea, Australia, Chinese Taipei, Turkey, and Indonesia. It is concluded that valid for models built for these regions and the countries, the models are statistically valid in terms of t-test and F-test. The residuals also confirm the accuracy of the models. The results show that developed models can be used for coal-related CO2 projections in future planning.