Evaluation of earthquake recurrences with different distribution models in western Anatolia

Çoban K. H., Sayil N.

JOURNAL OF SEISMOLOGY, vol.23, no.6, pp.1405-1422, 2019 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 23 Issue: 6
  • Publication Date: 2019
  • Doi Number: 10.1007/s10950-019-09876-5
  • Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus
  • Page Numbers: pp.1405-1422
  • Keywords: Weibull, Exponential, Distribution models, Conditional probability, Seismic hazards, Western Anatolia, PROBABILISTIC ASSESSMENT, ACTIVE TECTONICS, TURKEY, EVOLUTION, REGION, HAZARD, CONSTRAINTS, KINEMATICS, COLLISION, PENINSULA
  • Karadeniz Technical University Affiliated: Yes


The last two strong earthquakes, 21 July 2017 Bodrum-Kos (Mw = 6.5) and 12 June 2017 Karaburun-Aegean Sea (Mw = 6.2), indicate that western Anatolia (Aegean region) is seismo-tectonically active and has experienced several destructive earthquakes. Therefore, we aim to evaluate the seismic hazard of two study regions in western Anatolia by calculating conditional probabilities of earthquake (M >= 5.5) recurrences according to exponential, Weibull, gamma, log-normal, and Rayleigh distribution models. The study data include earthquakes (M >= 5.5) that occurred in the study regions from 1900 to 2018. We calculate the distribution model parameters with maximum likelihood estimates by using the inter-event time of earthquake recurrences. The fittings of the models with data are tested with the selection criteria, which are the lnL, the Akaike information criterion, Bayesian information criteria, and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov minimum distance criterion. After evaluating these selection criteria, the best fit is provided by the log-normal distribution model and the poorest fit is from the Rayleigh distribution model in both regions. The exponential, Weibull, and log-normal model conditional probability results (> 0.50) are close in the two regions (2017, te = 0 and 2020-2042, 3 <= t <= 25). The gamma distribution conditional probability gives the highest values. The minimum conditional probability value begins at 0.10 for the Rayleigh distribution model. According to the different distribution models in the study, the conditional probability results contribute to seismic hazard assessment in the regions.