Assessing the influence of drought index selection on drought characteristics: insights from precipitation-based indices in the Wadi Sly Basin, Algeria
METEOROLOGY AND ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS, cilt.138, sa.5, 2026 (SCI-Expanded, Scopus)
- Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
- Cilt numarası: 138 Sayı: 5
- Basım Tarihi: 2026
- Doi Numarası: 10.1007/s00703-026-01201-3
- Dergi Adı: METEOROLOGY AND ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS
- Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, Aerospace Database, Environment Index, Geobase, INSPEC, Natural Science Collection (ProQuest), Earth, Atmospheric, & Aquatic Science Collection (ProQuest), Technology Collection (ProQuest)
- Karadeniz Teknik Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet
Özet
Drought is a recurrent hydro-climatic hazard in semi-arid Mediterranean environments, where strong rainfall variability and increasing water stress threaten agricultural production and water resource sustainability. In this study, monthly precipitation records from seven rainfall stations covering the period 1967/68-2021/22 were analyzed in the Wadi Sly basin using four precipitation-based drought indices: the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), the empirical Standardized Precipitation Index (SPIe), the Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI), and the China Z-Index (CZI). Drought events were identified through the Run Theory, and their main characteristics, including frequency, duration, and severity, were quantified. In addition, the Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) method was applied to assess long-term changes in drought behavior. The results show a strong consistency among SPI, SPIe, and CZI, with very high correlations across all stations, indicating that these indices provide comparable representations of drought variability in the basin. In contrast, the RAI systematically produced higher estimates of drought frequency and severity, suggesting a greater sensitivity to precipitation anomalies. Spatial analysis revealed marked heterogeneity among stations, with some sites characterized by more frequent but shorter drought episodes, while others experienced fewer but more severe and persistent events. Trend analysis highlighted a progressive decline in wet extremes and a tendency toward increasing climatic dryness in the basin. These findings highlight that drought characterization is strongly influenced by the choice of index and underscore the importance of selecting robust, regionally appropriate indicators for effective drought monitoring and water resource management in Mediterranean North Africa.