Akademik Veri Yönetim Sistemi
AYIL- American Yearbook of International Law, cilt.2, sa.1, ss.117-167, 2024 (Hakemli Dergi)
Numerous nations worldwide are currently grappling
with the challenges posed by climate change. In particular, the Arctic region,
historically inhospitable to human activities due to its icy terrain, is
undergoing rapid transformation. The melting of polar ice has opened up new sea
routes and unlocked access to valuable energy resources. Consequently, several
nations are vying to expand their influence in the Arctic, leading to
heightened territorial claims and jurisdictional disputes. This growing
competition is not only influenced by internal dynamics but is also exacerbated
by external geopolitical events, with recent developments in Ukraine being a
prominent example. These global power plays have the potential to turn the
Arctic into a battleground for nations seeking to enhance their standing in the
international arena, thereby creating political ripples across the broader
region. This paper adopts a structural framework rooted in offensive
neo-realist theory, drawing upon existing research to analyze the situation. It
identifies two key inputs in the Arctic region: climate change (X1) as the
primary driver and the armed conflict in Ukraine (X2) as a secondary factor.
The study evaluates the possibility of a "spillover of tensions in the
Arctic" as a potential outcome (Y1). Additionally, it recognizes the
existence of a second potential outcome, an "icebreakers race" (Y2), which
warrants further investigation. Within the scope of this paper, it was
highlighted that the Svalbard Treaty effectively serves the Arctic.
Furthermore, Russia's position in the Arctic and its political perspective was
discussed. Finally, proposals for solutions to avoid any further tensions were
identified.
KEYWORDS: Arctic;
Geopolitics; Russia; Security Dilemma; Svalbard Treaty