Investigation of the Earthquake Effect on the Stability of Gravity Dams by Using Reliability Analysis


BAŞAĞA H. B. , BAYRAKTAR A.

International Symposium on Advances in Earthquake&Structural Engineering, Isparta, Turkey, 24 - 26 October 2007, pp.195-205

  • Publication Type: Conference Paper / Full Text
  • City: Isparta
  • Country: Turkey
  • Page Numbers: pp.195-205

Abstract

This study presents the earthquake effect on the stability analysis of gravity dams by considering the uncertainties of parameters (loads, material properties …) affecting the dam, instead of safety factors. The reliability analysis is carried out to find out the response of the dam according to the overturning, sliding and bearing capacity failure modes by considering six different loading conditions. In these conditions, the combination of dead loads, earthquake loads, headwater, tailwater and uplift pressure are taken into account. The dimensions of the dam and properties of the soil and dam materials are considered as random variables. In reliability calculations, Monte Carlo simulation and First Order Reliability Method (FORM) are used. In Monte Carlo simulation analysis, 1000000 sample values are considered. Reliability indexes and probability of failures are obtained from each loading condition for both two methods and compared to each other. It is seen that the load combinations including water in reservoir and earthquake loads are affected the stability of the dam.