Time-dependent model for earthquake occurrence and effects of design spectra on structural performance: a case study from the North Anatolian Fault Zone, Turkey

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Isik E., Ekinci Y. L., Sayıl N. L., Büyüksaraç A., Aydin M. C.

TURKISH JOURNAL OF EARTH SCIENCES, vol.30, no.2, pp.215-234, 2021 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 30 Issue: 2
  • Publication Date: 2021
  • Doi Number: 10.3906/yer-2004-20
  • Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, Academic Search Premier, Geobase, INSPEC, TR DİZİN (ULAKBİM)
  • Page Numbers: pp.215-234
  • Keywords: North Anatolian Fault Zone, seismic hazard, earthquake prediction, time-dependent model, site-specific spectra, adaptive static analysis, SEISMIC HAZARD, CRUSTAL DEFORMATION, STRESS TRANSFER, MARMARA REGION, ADJACENT AREAS, DISPLACEMENT, PREDICTION, CATALOG, BUILDINGS, ROTATIONS
  • Karadeniz Technical University Affiliated: Yes


We have investigated the time-dependent seismicity model of the earthquake occurrence on a regional basis through the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ). To that end, the studied region has been subdivided into 7 seismogenic zones considering the seismotectonic criteria, and then regional time and magnitude predictable (RTIMAP) model has been performed. Intervened times and magnitudes of main shocks produced in each zone have predictive properties defined by the RTIMAP. The probabilities of the next main shocks in 5 decades and the magnitudes of the next events have been estimated using the formation time and magnitude of the past events in the zones. In the second step of the study, we have considered 17 settlements located on the NAFZ to perform point-based site-specific seismic hazard analyses and to determine the design spectra and earthquake parameters using updated Turkish Earthquake Hazard Map. Eigen value and static adaptive pushover analyses have been applied for the sample reinforced concrete building using the design spectra obtained from each settlement. This sample building has been modelled with the same structural characteristics (i.e. material strength, column and beams, applied loads, etc.) for all of the settlements. We have determined that the earthquake building parameters differ from each other which indicates the significance of site-specific seismicity characteristics on the building performance.