ENERGY CONSUMPTION MODELING BASED ON GDP: THE CASE OF TURKEY

Aydın G., Kaya S., Karakurt İ.

15th International Multidisciplinary Scientific Geoconference (SGEM), Albena, Bulgaristan, 18 - 24 Haziran 2015, ss.933-938 identifier identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Bildiri / Tam Metin Bildiri
  • Cilt numarası:
  • Basıldığı Şehir: Albena
  • Basıldığı Ülke: Bulgaristan
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.933-938
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: Turkey, primary energy consumption, GDP, regression analysis, modeling, forecasting, CO2 EMISSIONS, PROJECTION
  • Karadeniz Teknik Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

ABSTRACT

© SGEM2015 In this study, regression analysis (RA) is used for modeling of Turkey's primary energy consumption (PEC) based on gross domestic product (GDP). The derived models are validated using some statistical approaches such as the determination coefficient, t-test, F-test, and residual analysis. Three performance measures including mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) are also used for the performance assessment of proposed models. Using the proposed models, Turkey' PEC is forecasted for the years 2014-2020. The results show that the proposed model can be affectively used for forecasting of Turkey's PEC. The modeling results show that Turkey's PEC would 154.763 Mtoe in 2020.