Analysis of annual, seasonal, and monthly trends of inflow data in Almus Dam

6th International Conference on Advanced Engineering Technologies, Bayburt, Türkiye, 23 - 25 Eylül 2026, ss.1299-1307, (Tam Metin Bildiri)

Trend analysis of dam flow series is a fundamental analytical approach important for

the long-term planning, operation, and sustainability of water resources. In particular,

identifying long-term changes in flow regimes driven by climate change requires

revising operational policies. In this study, the Mann-Kendall and Innovative Trend

Analysis (ITA) methods were applied to mean annual, seasonal, and monthly flow

data from the Almus Dam to reliably determine both the direction and magnitude of

the trend. Before conducting the trend analysis, a homogeneity test assessed the

dataset's reliability and consistency, and the series was evaluated for statistical

homogeneity. When the ITA results were compared with those of the Mann-Kendall

trend test, the ITA method provided more detailed and comprehensive evaluations.

Overall results showed different trends across methodologies at the annual, seasonal,

and monthly scales. Although the Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope methods did not

identify statistically significant trends in certain months, the ITA method revealed

decreasing trends in most months.