A quantitative appraisal of earthquake hazard parameters computed from Gumbel I method for different regions in and around Turkey

OEZTUERK S., BAYRAK Y., ÇINAR H., Koravos G. C., Tsapanos T. M.

NATURAL HAZARDS, vol.47, no.3, pp.471-495, 2008 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 47 Issue: 3
  • Publication Date: 2008
  • Doi Number: 10.1007/s11069-008-9234-6
  • Journal Name: NATURAL HAZARDS
  • Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus
  • Page Numbers: pp.471-495
  • Keywords: Earthquake hazard, Gumbel's distribution, Mean return period, The most probable maximum magnitude, SEISMIC HAZARD, MAXIMUM MAGNITUDE, WESTERN TURKEY, CRETE ISLAND, DEFORMATION, NEOTECTONICS, DYNAMICS, CAUCASUS, GREECE, WORLD
  • Karadeniz Technical University Affiliated: Yes


Useful information concerning the earthquake hazard parameters distributed in Turkey and the adjacent areas are estimated in the present work. Based on Gumbel's I distribution parameters we are able to estimate the hazard values of the investigated area which are the mean return periods, the most probable maximum magnitude in the time period of t-years and the probability for an earthquake occurrence of magnitude >= M during a time span of t-years. Figures concerning the spatial distribution of probabilities and the return periods are plotted and we considered them of particular interest for mapping the earthquake hazard in Turkey and the surrounding areas. These figures effectively produce a brief earthquake hazard atlas. The quantitative appraisal of the hazard parameters is useful for engineers, planners, etc., because it provides a tool for earthquake resistant design.