The Evaluation of the Earthquake Hazard Using the Exponential Distribution Method for Different Seismic Source Regions in and around Agri

Bayrak Y., TÜRKER T.

International Conference on Advances in Natural and Applied Sciences (ICANAS), Antalya, Türkiye, 21 - 23 Nisan 2016, cilt.1726 identifier identifier

  • Cilt numarası: 1726
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1063/1.4945827
  • Basıldığı Şehir: Antalya
  • Basıldığı Ülke: Türkiye


The aim of this study; were determined of the earthquake hazard using the exponential distribution method for different seismic sources of the Agri and vicinity. A homogeneous earthquake catalog has been examined for 1900-2015 (the instrumental period) with 456 earthquake data for Agri and vicinity. Catalog; Bogazici University Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (Burke), National Earthquake Monitoring Center (NEMC), TUBITAK, TURKNET the International Seismological Center (ISC), Seismological Research Institute (IRIS) has been created using different catalogs like. Agri and vicinity are divided into 7 different seismic source regions with epicenter distribution of formed earthquakes in the instrumental period, focal mechanism solutions, and existing tectonic structures. In the study, the average magnitude value are calculated according to the specified magnitude ranges for 7 different seismic source region. According to the estimated calculations for 7 different seismic source regions, the biggest difference corresponding with the classes of determined magnitudes between observed and expected cumulative probabilities are determined. The recurrence period and earthquake occurrence number per year are estimated of occurring earthquakes in the Agri and vicinity. As a result, 7 different seismic source regions are determined occurrence probabilities of an earthquake 3.2 magnitude, Region 1 was greater than 6.7 magnitude, Region 2 was greater than than 4.7 magnitude, Region 3 was greater than 5.2 magnitude, Region 4 was greater than 6.2 magnitude, Region 5 was greater than 5.7 magnitude, Region 6 was greater than 7.2 magnitude, Region 7 was greater than 6.2 magnitude. The highest observed magnitude 7 different seismic source regions of Agri and vicinity are estimated 7 magnitude in Region 6. Region 6 are determined according to determining magnitudes, occurrence years of earthquakes in the future years, respectively, 7.2 magnitude was in 158 years, 6.7 magnitude was in 70 years, 6.2 magnitude was in 31 years, 5.7 magnitude was in 13 years, 5.2 magnitude was in 6 years.