An application of the time- and magnitude-predictable model to long-term earthquake prediction in eastern Anatolia

Sayil N. L.

JOURNAL OF SEISMOLOGY, vol.9, no.3, pp.367-379, 2005 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 9 Issue: 3
  • Publication Date: 2005
  • Doi Number: 10.1007/s10950-005-0037-x
  • Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus
  • Page Numbers: pp.367-379
  • Karadeniz Technical University Affiliated: Yes


In order to estimate the recurrence intervals for large earthquakes occurring in eastern Anatolia, this region enclosed within the coordinates of 36 degrees-42 degrees N, 35 degrees-45 degrees E has been separated into nine seismogenic sources on the basis of certain seismological and geomorphological criteria, and a regional time- and magnitude-predictable model has been applied for these sources. This model implies that the magnitude of the preceding main shock which is the largest earthquake during a seismic excitation in a seismogenic source governs the time of occurrence and the magnitude of the expected main shock in this source. The data belonging to both the instrumental period (M-S>= 5.5) until 2003 and the historical period (I-0>= 9.0 corresponding to M-S>= 7.0) before 1900 have been used in the analysis. The interevent time between successive main shocks with magnitude equal to or larger than a certain minimum magnitude threshold were considered in each of the nine source regions within the study area. These interevent times as well as the magnitudes of the main shocks have been used to determine the following relations: