CROATIAN JOURNAL OF FOREST ENGINEERING, cilt.46, sa.1, ss.1-14, 2025 (SCI-Expanded)
Natural and human-induced disturbances are major drivers of the decline and loss of vulnerable species worldwide. Among these, fires are particularly disruptive as they can devastate entire ecosystems. Assessing the likelihood and severity of such disturbances on plant communities is crucial for the management and conservation of biodiversity. This study aims to analyze fire susceptibility using the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model to evaluate the potential impacts of fires on the biodiversity of a lowland forest in Azerbaijan. The research was conducted as part of the project on the evaluation of Red Book species in Azerbaijan based on IUCN categories and criteria. In this study, 21 rare plant species found in the Samur-Yalama National Park (SYNP) were assessed for fire susceptibility, as they have been significantly affected by fires in recent years. The fire susceptibility analysis included 12 driving factors, categorized into topographic, vegetation, and climatic factors, and identified 564 wildfire incidents. Model performance was evaluated using the AUC value, which was 0.855, indicating good model accuracy. Fire susceptibility was classified into three categories: low, moderate, and high. According to the results, 12,642 hectares (60.82%) of the SYNP area fall under low susceptibility, 5532 hectares (26.62%) under moderate susceptibility, and 2611 hectares (12.56%) under high susceptibility. Rare plant species in SYNP were evaluated based on their fire susceptibility. It was found that Alceakusariensis (Iljin ex Grossh.) Iljin, Anacamptismorio subsp. picta (Loisel.) Jacquet & Scappat., Equisetumhyemale L., Orchispurpurea Huds., Pinusbrutia var. eldarica (Medw.) Silba, Platanusorientalis L., Punicagranatum L., and Quercuscastaneifolia C.A.Mey are located in areas classified as having high susceptibility.