Longitudinal machine learning modeling of MS patient trajectories improves predictions of disability progression

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De Brouwer E., Becker T., Moreau Y., Havrdova E. K., Trojano M., Eichau S., ...Daha Fazla

COMPUTER METHODS AND PROGRAMS IN BIOMEDICINE, cilt.208, 2021 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 208
  • Basım Tarihi: 2021
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1016/j.cmpb.2021.106180
  • Dergi Adı: COMPUTER METHODS AND PROGRAMS IN BIOMEDICINE
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, Academic Search Premier, PASCAL, Applied Science & Technology Source, BIOSIS, Biotechnology Research Abstracts, Compendex, Computer & Applied Sciences, EMBASE, INSPEC, MEDLINE
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: Multiple sclerosis, Machine learning, Longitudinal data, Recurrent neural networks, Electronic health records, Disability progression, Real-world data, MULTIPLE-SCLEROSIS, REGISTRY, THERAPY
  • Karadeniz Teknik Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

Background and Objectives: Research in Multiple Sclerosis (MS) has recently focused on extracting knowledge from real-world clinical data sources. This type of data is more abundant than data produced during clinical trials and potentially more informative about real-world clinical practice. However, this comes at the cost of less curated and controlled data sets. In this work we aim to predict disability progression by optimally extracting information from longitudinal patient data in the real-world setting, with a special focus on the sporadic sampling problem. Methods: We use machine learning methods suited for patient trajectories modeling, such as recurrent neural networks and tensor factorization. A subset of 6682 patients from the MSBase registry is used. Results: We can predict disability progression of patients in a two-year horizon with an ROC-AUC of 0.85, which represents a 32% decrease in the ranking pair error (1-AUC) compared to reference methods using static clinical features. Conclusions: Compared to the models available in the literature, this work uses the most complete patient history for MS disease progression prediction and represents a step forward towards AI-assisted precision medicine in MS. (c) 2021 Published by Elsevier B.V.