Probabilistic Appraisal of Earthquake Hazard Parameters Deduced from a Bayesian Approach in the Northwest Frontier of the Himalayas

Yadav R. B. S., Tsapanos T. M., BAYRAK Y., Koravos G. C.

PURE AND APPLIED GEOPHYSICS, vol.170, no.3, pp.283-297, 2013 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 170 Issue: 3
  • Publication Date: 2013
  • Doi Number: 10.1007/s00024-012-0488-2
  • Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus
  • Page Numbers: pp.283-297
  • Keywords: Bayesian statistics, earthquake hazard parameters, maximum regional magnitude, quantiles, Himalaya, INCOMPLETE DATA FILES, SEISMIC-HAZARD, STATISTICAL ESTIMATION, REGIONAL TIME, MAGNITUDE, OCCURRENCES, EXTREME, MODEL, VICINITY, GREECE
  • Karadeniz Technical University Affiliated: Yes


A straightforward Bayesian statistic is applied in five broad seismogenic source zones of the northwest frontier of the Himalayas to estimate the earthquake hazard parameters (maximum regional magnitude M-max, beta value of G-R relationship and seismic activity rate or intensity lambda). For this purpose, a reliable earthquake catalogue which is homogeneous for M-W >= 5.0 and complete during the period 1900 to 2010 is compiled. The Hindukush-Pamir Himalaya zone has been further divided into two seismic zones of shallow (h <= 70 km) and intermediate depth (h > 70 km) according to the variation of seismicity with depth in the subduction zone. The estimated earthquake hazard parameters by Bayesian approach are more stable and reliable with low standard deviations than other approaches, but the technique is more time consuming. In this study, quantiles of functions of distributions of true and apparent magnitudes for future time intervals of 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 years are calculated with confidence limits for probability levels of 50, 70 and 90 % in all seismogenic source zones. The zones of estimated M-max greater than 8.0 are related to the Sulaiman-Kirthar ranges, Hindukush-Pamir Himalaya and Himalayan Frontal Thrusts belt; suggesting more seismically hazardous regions in the examined area. The lowest value of M-max (6.44) has been calculated in Northern-Pakistan and Hazara syntaxis zone which have estimated lowest activity rate 0.0023 events/day as compared to other zones. The Himalayan Frontal Thrusts belt exhibits higher earthquake magnitude (8.01) in next 100-years with 90 % probability level as compared to other zones, which reveals that this zone is more vulnerable to occurrence of a great earthquake. The obtained results in this study are directly useful for the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in the examined region of Himalaya.