Analyzing Collision, Grounding, and Sinking Accidents Occurring in the Black Sea Utilizing HFACS and Bayesian Networks

Ugurlu O., YILDIZ S., Loughney S., Wang J., Kuntchulia S., Sharabidze I.

RISK ANALYSIS, vol.40, no.12, pp.2610-2638, 2020 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 40 Issue: 12
  • Publication Date: 2020
  • Doi Number: 10.1111/risa.13568
  • Journal Name: RISK ANALYSIS
  • Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Scopus, International Bibliography of Social Sciences, PASCAL, ABI/INFORM, Agricultural & Environmental Science Database, Aqualine, Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA), Business Source Elite, Business Source Premier, CAB Abstracts, Compendex, EMBASE, Environment Index, Food Science & Technology Abstracts, Geobase, INSPEC, MEDLINE, PAIS International, Political Science Complete, Pollution Abstracts, Psycinfo, Public Administration Abstracts, Public Affairs Index, Sociological abstracts, SportDiscus, Veterinary Science Database, Worldwide Political Science Abstracts, Civil Engineering Abstracts
  • Page Numbers: pp.2610-2638
  • Karadeniz Technical University Affiliated: Yes


This study examines and analyzes marine accidents that have occurred over the past 20 years in the Black Sea. Geographic information system, human factor analysis and classification system (HFACS), and Bayesian network models are used to analyze the marine accidents. The most important feature distinguishing this study from other studies is that this is the first study to analyze accidents that have occurred across the whole Black Sea. Another important feature is the application of a new HFACS structure to reveal accident formation patterns. The results of this study indicate that accidents occurred in high concentrations in coastal regions of the Black Sea, especially in the Kerch Strait, Novorossiysk, Kilyos, Constanta, Riva, and Batumi regions. The formation of grounding and sinking accidents has been found to be similar in nature; the use of inland and old vessels has been highlighted as important factors in sinking and grounding incidents. However, the sequence of events leading to collision-contact accidents differs from the sequence of events resulting in grounding and sinking accidents. This study aims to provide information to the maritime industry regarding the occurrence of maritime incidents in the Black Sea, in order to assist with reduction and prevention of the marine accidents.