is Turkey a Potential Middle Income Trap Candidate? An Evaluation in Terms of Various Indicators

Berber M., Değer M. K., Doğanay M. A.

II.International Conference on Economics, Business Management and Social Sciences, Belgrade, Serbia, 10 - 14 May 2017, pp.101

  • Publication Type: Conference Paper / Summary Text
  • City: Belgrade
  • Country: Serbia
  • Page Numbers: pp.101
  • Karadeniz Technical University Affiliated: Yes


Once an economy reaches a certain per capita level of income and become trapped there it is called a middle income trap. With the different definitions of the middle income trap, the most widely accepted is that stay longer than 28 years at the lower middle income level and 14 years at the upper middle income level. There are many factors that lead to the capture of countries in the middle income trap. Among these (i) low levels of savings and investments, (ii) slow development of manufacturing industry and low value added in manufacturing, (iii) low product diversity in the industry and (iv) labour market conditions showing poor growth. The aim of this study is to try to determine whether Turkey, which has been in the upper middle income level since 2005, will be caught up in the middle income trap. Therefore, the study will make comparisons in terms of middle-income trap indicators between the other upper middle-income countries in the same income group as Turkey and the countries which is in the high income countries group. In line with this goal, the countries will be evaluated with saving and investment rates, number of exported products, diversity indices in exported products, share of high value-added product exports, shares allocated to R&D, enrolment rates at university level, Human Development Index, indicators of corruption. Among the expected results in the study, Turkey is likely to have a middle income gap among the other middle income countries.