Akademik Veri Yönetim Sistemi
ENERGY POLICY, cilt.36, sa.9, ss.3374-3382, 2008 (SCI-Expanded)
This paper deals with Turkey's hydropower potential and its long-term electric energy demand predictions. In the paper. at first, Turkey's energy sources are briefly reviewed. Then, hydropower potential is analyzed and it has been concluded that Turkey's annual economically feasible hydropower potential is about 188 TWh, nearly 47% greater than the previous estimation figures of 128 TWh. A review on previous prediction models for Turkey's long-term electric energy demand is presented. In order to predict the future demand, new increment ratio scenarios, which depend on both observed data and future predictions of population, energy consumption per capita and total energy consumption, are developed. The results of 11 prediction models are compared and analyzed. It is concluded that Turkey's annual electric energy demand predictions in 2010, 2015 and 2020 vary between 222 and 242 (average 233)TWh; 302 and 356 (average 334)TWh; and 440 and 514 (average 476)TWh, respectively. A discussion on the role of hydropower in meeting long-term demand is also included in the paper and it has been predicted that hydropower can meet 25-35% of Turkey's electric energy demand in 2020. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.